The Case for Baylor
Making the case for why the Bears could contend for the Big 12 title and a spot in the CFP this fall.
After the first half of the 2024 season, Baylor was in rough shape. The Bears went 2-4 in their first six games, with their lone wins coming over their FCS and Group of 5 opponents (Tarleton State and Air Force).
However, while they weren’t winning many games, their record wasn’t fully indicative of how they were playing or the caliber of team they were.
One of those first four losses was on the road at Colorado, in which the Buffaloes needed a Hail Mary as time expired and a forced fumble at the goal line to win in overtime. Another one of those first four losses was by just 6 points to BYU, who eventually finished as an 11-win team. In their loss to Utah, their starting QB was DeQuan Finn instead of Sawyer Robertson. Finn went 9/21 for 115 yards and Robertson subsequently started every game for the remainder of the year.
At the midway point of the season, things clicked for the Bears and they started playing to their full potential. After starting 2-4, they won six consecutive games to close out the regular season and finished 8-4. Five of those six wins came by double digits.
In their bowl game, they came up short against a very talented LSU squad, who now sits as a Top 10 team in the 2025 preseason AP poll, in a 44-31 defeat in the Texas Bowl. Even though they lost the game, Baylor put up over 500 yards of total offense, the most LSU allowed in any game last season, and showed a lot of potential for the 2025 season.
From last year’s offense, Baylor returns:
QB1 Sawyer Robertson (3,301 total yards, 32 total TDs, 8 INT in 2024)
RB1 Bryson Washington (1,245 total yards, 13 total TDs in 2024)
RB2 Dawson Pendergrass (803 total yards, 7 total TDs in 2024)
WR1 Josh Cameron (52 receptions, 754 yards, 10 TDs in 2024)
WR2 Ashtyn Hawkins (45 receptions, 567 yards, 5 TDs in 2024)
TE1 Michael Trigg (30 receptions, 395 yards, 3 touchdowns in 2024)
Baylor returns the 14th most offensive production in the FBS, 6th most offensive production in the Power 4 (72% from last season).
In addition to what they’re bringing back, they also brought in:
Alabama transfer WR Kobe Prentice (443 yards, 3 TDs over last 2 years)
Texas State transfer WR Kole Wilson (1,377 yards, 12 TDs over last 2 years)
San Diego State transfer WR Louis Brown IV (1,101 yards, 8 TDs over last 2 years)
4-star RB recruit Caden Knighten
4-star RB recruit Michael Turner
3-star WR Taz Williams Jr. (committed to Baylor over Michigan, Texas A&M, Penn State, and Alabama)
Along their offensive line, they return multiple starters from last season and every projected starter for 2025 is a redshirt junior or older.
From last year’s defense, Baylor returns:
LB Keaton Thomas (leading tackler, 114 total tackles, 7.0 TFL, INT)
DB Devyn Bobby (80 total tackles, 3.0 TFL, 3 INTs, 2 fumble recoveries)
DE Jackie Marshall (42 total tackles, 7.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, forced fumble)
DB Carl Williams IV (35 total tackles, 5.0 TFL, forced fumble)
DB Caden Jenkins, DB DJ Coleman, DB Tevin Williams III
To fill a couple gaps from the departures of guys like first-team All-Big 12 linebacker Matt Jones, Baylor brought in:
FIU transfer LB Travion Barnes (129 total tackles, 10.5 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, one pick six in 2024)
Fresno State transfer LB Phoenix Jackson (48 total tackles, 6.5 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 2 interceptions, one pick six, forced fumble in 2024)
Tulane transfer LB Matthew Fobbs-White (21 total tackles, 7.5 TFL, 4.0 sacks, forced fumble in 2024)
Oregon transfer LB Emar’rion Winston
4-star EDGE recruit Kamauryn Morgan (committed to Baylor over Texas A&M, SMU, and Arizona State)
4-star LB recruit Kaleb Burns (committed to Baylor over SMU, Texas Tech, and TCU)
On their schedule this fall, Baylor has a bit of a front-loaded slate, but one that I believe they can manage:
Auburn (8:00 PM EST)
at #16 SMU (NOON EST)
Samford
#11 Arizona State
at Oklahoma State
#17 Kansas State
BYE
at TCU
at Cincinnati
UCF
BYE
Utah
at Arizona
Houston
In terms of a path to the College Football Playoff, the simplest way for Baylor to do that would be to get the autobid with a Big 12 championship. That’s much easier said than done of course, but what that means is that the Auburn/SMU games aren’t necessarily do or die.
They’re excellent résumé building opportunities for a potential at-large bid for Baylor, but if they were to start the season 1-1 (or even 0-2, assuming they’re at least competitive in those games) against two quality opponents, everything’s still in front of them.
I personally believe they have a high likelihood to beat Auburn, and wouldn’t surprised if they upset #16 SMU on the road as well.
In Big 12 play, their two toughest opponents (as of now) are #11 ASU and #17 Kansas State. They get them both at home. They don’t play preseason #22 Iowa State, #23 Texas Tech, or receiving votes #26 BYU.
Their conference road trips are to:
Oklahoma State (preseason win total of 5.5 games, 15th in Big 12)
TCU (preseason win total of 6.5 games, 10th in Big 12)
Cincinnati (preseason win total of 6.5 games, 11th in Big 12)
Arizona (preseason win total of 5.5 games, 14th in Big 12)
If the Big 12 in 2025 is anything like like it was in 2024, preseason rankings and win totals might be completely upside down and they may end up having an extremely difficult road schedule. As of now though, it appears manageable outside of the rivalry game with a solid TCU squad who can always trip them up (and they get one of their bye weeks before that game).
Baylor is a program with College Football Playoff pedigree, and had the 12-team format existed in previous years, the Bears would’ve been in the Playoff in 2014 (#5), 2019 (#7), and 2021 (#7). That would’ve been three CFP appearances under three different coaches (Briles, Rhule, Aranda).
The Big 12 has had a trend of unpredictability in recent seasons, with the eventual conference champion starting the season unranked in three of the last four years. With the Bears’ combination of high-level returning talent, incoming playmakers from the transfer portal/recruiting class, and scheduling advantages, I believe Baylor can be that team in 2025.